India's services sector output growth touched a three-month high in November as business inflows rose markedly amid accommodative demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 55.1 in October to 56.4 in November, indicating a sharp increase in output that was the quickest in three months even amid higher operating expenses. Survey participants linked the latest expansion to demand strength, successful marketing and a sustained upturn in sales.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 27 per cent jump in its September quarter net profit as earnings from the oil and gas business rebounded, and a pick-up in fashion and grocery helped boost retail revenues. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit of Rs 17,394 crore, or Rs 25.71 per share, in July-September - the second quarter of the current 2023-24 fiscal - was 27.3 per cent higher than Rs 13,656 crore, or Rs 19.92 a share, earning a year back, the company said in a statement. The net profit was also higher quarter-on-quarter compared to Rs 16,011 crore earnings in the preceding three months ended June 30.
'The expectation was that Modi would become even bolder in his approach, and after only four months into his second term, we are starting to see evidence of this.'
South and South-West Asia could witness an economic growth of 5.3 per cent in 2015, which will be a four-year high.
International oil prices retreated from an over seven-year high but was still above $100 a barrel and continue to pose threat to India's inflation rate and current account deficit. While there are no supply concerns as the oil route remained open, consumers will feel the pinch when PSU oil firms start passing on the increase in international rates through a revision in petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a pause for over three-and-a-half-months in view of elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states. The government is "closely monitoring the situation" and will "take appropriate steps as and when required", a top official said. Brent crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2014, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
It's easy to say investors should focus on fundamentals but this risk can have a significant and lasting impact
RBI will now increasingly shift focus to domestic parameters
'India's sizeable foreign exchange reserves should serve as a buffer.'
The ongoing oil price decline is mainly a result of oversupply in the global market
Large and small businesses alike have delivered low-key performances.
In a year when the country produced record coal, rains hit movement of the fuel from mines to power generation units, impacting power generation in many states, including Gujarat, Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi and Tamil Nadu.
On the volume side, the number of M&A and PE deals was 110 in July, 15 per cent lower from 130 in July 2018.
TCS is confident of achieving a double-digit revenue growth in the current fiscal and will be targeting a similar performance in FY24 as well, a senior executive said on Tuesday. The largest IT services exporter's ability to achieve the number in FY24 will hinge on how the macroeconomic situation, including geopolitical tensions, commodity price pressures, inflation and financial tightening worries, play out, chief operating officer N Ganapathy Subramaniam told PTI. "(For) this year (FY23), probably we are there (double-digit growth).
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
'We have relatively strong growth and a healthy corporate earnings cycle as positives, but a worrisome current account deficit and high inflation as challenges.'
'Such big falls are quite frequent these days, so do not try to time this market.' 'Use big dips to accumulate quality stocks.'
After consumer price index jumped the 6.3-per cent mark in May and wholesale inflation set a record of 12.94 per cent, house economists at Swiss brokerage UBS Securities have warned that the country is facing more upside risks on the inflation front that is set to averaging at 5 per cent for the year. Rising prices of edible oils and protein rich items pushed retail inflation to a six-month high of 6.3 per cent in May, breaching the comfort level of the Reserve Bank and thus rendering reduction in interest rates a difficult proposition in the near term. Led by petrol price, that has crossed the Rs 100-mark in many states, wholesale inflation too accelerated to a record 12.94 per cent in May. While crude oil has crossed $70 a barrel on account of rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods due to spike in commodities, and the low base of last year due to the lockdown.
Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra on Wednesday refused to speculate on whether the G20 foreign ministers' meeting would be able to come out with a joint communique against the backdrop of widening differences between the West and Russia on the Ukraine conflict.
Inflation trajectory, domestically as also globally, is what will shape the economy, and therefore the market, over the next couple of quarters.'
When the world was upended by the Covid-19 pandemic, metals got its shine back. In the last two years, infrastructure spending by major economies spurred demand, energy transition and intermittent supply disruptions fuelled a scorching rally in metals after a downturn during the first Covid wave. Now, Russia's war on Ukraine is ensuring that elevated prices stay the course.
Nirmala Sitharaman's messaging was clear when she presented a well-balanced Budget with an eye on state elections in nine states followed by a general election next year, observes Ramesh Menon.
Link between oil exploration and markets can be used by India to great advantage.
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
India and the US had on July 17 signed a preliminary agreement for cooperating on emergency crude oil reserves, including the possibility of India storing oil in the US emergency stockpile.
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced to increase the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, the second hike in five weeks aimed at quelling the inflation. The MPC vote was unanimous and has decided to keep stance withdrawal from accommodative, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a press conference on Wednesday. The decision was taken during a three-day meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to review the interest rates in the country. The MPC voted unanimously to increase the policy repo rate by 50 bps to 4.90 per cent," Das said.
This means lower losses on fuel sales by Indian oil companies and a shrinking oil subsidy bill for the government.
On February 24, when Vladimir Putin announced a military operation on Ukraine, few would have thought that Indian government-owned GAIL India would feel the impact. The tensions over gas supplies were essentially a Europe-Russia problem, related to the sanctions western economies imposed on Moscow. But the EU depends on Russian imports for 40 per cent of its gas stocks, an over-dependence that Russia has underlined with Kremlin-owned Gazprom cutting its supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20 per cent, citing maintenance issues.
The world economy is going through a tough phase.
Jaishankar said all members would agree that India's approach should be guided by its national beliefs and values, national interest and by its national strategy.
Experts caution against tough times in Indian equity markets in 2015.
So which sectors are likely to do well in 2022? Should you focus on domestic economy-related sectors or export-oriented ones?
'The government must keep bad news out of the newspapers. If you have news about a fight everyday, it is not a climate where investment takes place.'
Russia dominated Saudi Arabia in oil supplies as the world's fastest-growing major economy for fossil fuels in October, relegating the Kingdom to third place. Iraq was India's top oil supplier, according to the data from Vortexa. Saudi Arabia's decline in India's oil market has coincided with Russia's rise, and ironically occurred amid growing diplomatic ties between Riyadh and New Delhi. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud is visiting India this month to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
'Periods of high volatility are usually bad for mid-caps and this is something that has to be kept in mind.' 'Focus on quality is of paramount importance.'
What are the most worrisome aspects of climate change for India? Can they be solved?
'India easily remains one among the more attractive large economies, with high growth and stable/improving macros, as a top investment destination.' 'We are looking pretty good.'
The government should bring natural gas under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime to realise Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision for a gas-based economy and raising the share of the environment-friendly fuel in India's energy basket, an industry body that represents the likes of Reliance Industries as well as state-owned firms, has said. Natural gas is currently outside the ambit of GST, and existing legacy taxes -- central excise duty, state VAT, central sales tax -- continue to be applicable on the fuel. In its pre-Budget memorandum to the finance ministry, Federation of Indian Petroleum Industry (FIPI), which boasts of members from across the oil and gas spectrum, also demanded rationalisation of GST on transportation of natural gas through pipeline as well as on re-gasification of imported LNG to help bring down cost of the environment friendly fuel.